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Claudia Sahm: Why My Recession Rule Could Go Wrong This Time


The highly accurate Sahm rule uses the unemployment rate to detect the start of an economic downturn. But like many indicators during the pandemic era, it’s possible it could “break.” Alarm bells sounded Friday when we learned that the US unemployment rate rose to 3.9% for October, well above the 50-year low of 3.4% that it hit earlier in

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Posted: November 7, 2023 Tuesday 01:00 PM