'Carpe Diem, Quam Minimum Credula Postero'

'Seize the day, Trusting as little as possible in the future'


Recent Stories
Michael Strain: The Fed Should Not Cut Interest Rates Yet

07/17/24 08:15AM - WASHINGTON, DC – Investors are betting on interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in September, and potentially even in late July. But the outlook for inflation and the labor market in the United States does not indicate that …more…

John Tamny: The 'Sahm Rule’ Is Thoroughly Nonsensical, Like Macroeconomics Itself

07/16/24 04:00PM - "What is harmful or disastrous to an individual must be equally harmful to the collection of individuals that make up a nation." – Henry Hazlitt Oh, the obnoxious, naïve conceit of economists. They literally think they can measure the …more…

Mark Mills: A Bet Against the “Energy Transition”

07/16/24 02:56PM - Modern civilization depends on abundant, affordable, and reliable energy. Policies that ignore this won’t turn out well. Starting this month, everyday citizens, not just hedge fund managers and traders, will be able to make direct bets on …more…

Adam Millsap: Nostalgia For Manufacturing Jobs Is Misplaced

07/16/24 08:49AM - President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are competing to convince voters that they alone can protect manufacturing jobs, promising to use tariffs, "Buy American" rules, and subsidies to get the job done. Their supporters praise …more…

Conor Sen: The Housing Market Will Tell the Fed How Much to Cut Rates

07/16/24 06:00AM - A lot of pent-up economic energy will be unleashed once mortgage rates fall to levels that boost transactions and home-linked consumption. It’s been clear since the fall of 2022 that the housing market needed lower interest rates to fix many of …more…

Thomas Sowell: Lessons of the Trump Assassination Attempt

07/15/24 05:53PM - The world sees a strong American leader even amid ominous division. Although the attempt to assassinate Donald Trump failed, it was part of a long and growing pattern of threats and violence that can be fatal to American society. This need not be …more…

Economic Results
Beige Book: Economic Activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth

07/17/24 02:00PM - Overall Economic Activity

Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase …more…

May 2024 Industrial Production rose 0.6%, Capacity Utilization moved up to 78.8%

07/17/24 09:15AM - Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in June after advancing 0.9 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production increased at an annual rate of 4.3 percent. Manufacturing output moved up 0.4 percent in June and rose …more…

June 2024 Housing Starts Increased 3.0%, Permits up 3.4%

07/17/24 08:30AM - Building Permits
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,446,000. This is 3.4 percent above the revised May rate of 1,399,000, but is 3.1 percent below the June 2023 rate …more…

Purchase Apps up, Refi's up in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

07/17/24 07:00AM - Mortgage applications increased 3.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending July 12, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage …more…

Business Inventories up 0.5% in May 2024

07/16/24 10:00AM - The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for May, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,861.4 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.1 percent)* from April …more…

NAHB Builder Confidence down 1 points to 42 in July 2024

07/16/24 10:00AM - Mortgage rates that averaged 6.92% in June per Freddie Mac, along with elevated rates for construction and development loans, continue to put a damper on builder sentiment.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in July, down one point from June, according to the National Association of Home Builders …more…

U.S. Retail Sales for May 2024 unch%, Ex-Auto up 0.4%

07/16/24 08:30AM - Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* from the …more…